Methodology

Every number should answer “could I actually trade it?”

SpreadBoard separates market discovery from execution evidence. Unknown inputs stay unknown instead of being replaced by optimistic defaults.

01 · Prices

Matched-size VWAP

The standard $500 matched-size probe walks the buy leg through asks and the sell leg through bids for the same underlying exposure. Contract multipliers and available directional depth are applied before the matched spread is shown.

(sell VWAP ÷ buy VWAP − 1) × 100
What it prevents

Top-book mirages

A tiny best quote cannot make an entire position executable. When target depth is unavailable, the matched-size value stays unresolved; any current top-book reference remains separately labelled and the calculator does not invent a fill.

02 · Funding

Settled funding and current funding stay separate

The multi-horizon 24h outlook weights the current-rate projection 35%, settled 1d 30%, dailyized 7d 25%, and dailyized 30d 10%, then renormalizes across only the horizons that exist. A current/history sign conflict cuts the blended magnitude by 25% and is shown explicitly; history can keep a cooled leader on the radar but cannot masquerade as a live rate.

Two theses

Funding and spread interact

Funding stability, persistence and rate form the funding thesis. Entry size, observed convergence, half-life and basis risk form the spread thesis. Multi-horizon expected funding adjusts the spread score; evidence-backed convergence adjusts the funding score. Positive means the shown hedge receives.

03 · Risk reserve

Empirical adverse-tail stress

The Watchlist estimates a collateral reserve for each futures leg from hourly prices: rolling maximum adverse 24-hour excursions, full-history and recent realized volatility, 99% parametric shocks, basis widening, and leg correlation. The larger supported shock is used rather than an average.

Personal inputs

Account stress without invented liquidation

The personalized margin planner combines that public stress with the member's exact maintenance tier, leverage, isolated/cross equity, other positions, fees, borrow, gas and slippage. It returns stress headroom and refuses missing required inputs; it does not call that an exchange liquidation price.

04 · Identity

Identity before price

Matching tickers are not enough. Market base/quote metadata and shared contracts or mints are used where available. Implausible ratios, leveraged products, and ambiguous DEX identities are held out.

Policy

Unknown stays unknown

A route without enough identity evidence is research context, never silently upgraded into an executable claim.

05 · Rails

Directional transfer proof

Spot transfer routes require withdrawal from the buy venue and deposit to the sell venue on a compatible network. Generic green deposit/withdraw badges are not sufficient.

DEX

Exact chain, size and cost evidence

DEX quotes preserve chain, contract, quoted notional, route plan, gas, slippage tolerance and provider price impact when supplied. Gas adjusts the opening edge once; price impact embedded in quoted buy/sell prices is not charged twice. Larger size, changing gas, MEV and transaction failure remain explicit limitations.

06 · Future ML

Shadow data before a model

Versioned score observations are frozen before 8h/24h outcomes exist. A separate daily public-market backfill uses only each observation's preceding 24 hours and excludes historical DEX rows because old chain, contract and rail evidence was not retained. It cannot satisfy identity, exact-cost or activation gates. A future model must use purged chronological train-calibration-test splits with a 24-hour embargo and at least three walk-forward folds, pass leakage and class-balance checks, beat prevalence baselines, produce calibrated probabilities, survive drift checks, and run in shadow mode for at least 14 days.

Exact costs

Opt-in completed-position evidence

Only explicitly contributed completed positions can supply route-level median total and component lifecycle-cost percentages. Fees, borrow, gas, transfer and measured slippage are included for research economics; slippage remains embedded in actual portfolio fills and is never deducted twice from portfolio PnL. Exact DEX chain and contract must match before DEX evidence is reused.

Fail closed

No AI score is active

No OpenAI, Anthropic, Gemini, Ollama or predictive model is configured. Activation remains impossible until at least 5,000 labeled 24-hour outcomes across 100 routes and 30 days exist, account-cost coverage is sufficient, and a tested deterministic fallback is present. Eight-hour labels are monitored separately and cannot inflate this gate. LLM margin predictions are explicitly excluded.

Live

Current public API or streaming book inside the freshness window.

Settled

A completed venue funding payment, not a projection.

Modeled

A scenario using explicitly displayed assumptions.

Unresolved

Evidence is missing; no positive assumption was inserted.